Russo-Ukraine war has been ongoing for two years, the situation on the ground has changed significantly since 2022, should peace talks resume.
Source: https://www.nepia.com/topics/ukraine-conflict/
It has been 2 years since the start of Russia full scale invasion of Ukraine and almost ten years since the Russo-Ukrainian conflict started. Russia’s supposed special military operation has carried a severe human toll. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced and thousands of been killed or severely injured. The atmosphere surrounding the Ukrainian conflict has drastically. Media coverage and daily interest has declined since 2022. Aid to Ukraine from different allies is much lower than it was during 2022. Many expected a short-lived conflict; it has transitioned to a protracted war of attrition. Russia has not collapsed or destabilize due to sanctions. Russia has instead mobilized its entire economy towards war. It has grown at a faster pace than most G7 countries.
Russia’s resilience repudiated the idea of total victory for Ukraine, it also exposed troubling asymmetries. Russia armaments and military production has been largely indigenous, Russia maintains a larger industrial base than its adversary. Ukraine is still heavily dependent on western aid and arms. Ukraine’s lack of self sufficiency will result in a lack of firepower, if western aid continues to drop. As I right now, Ukraine has depleted through its stockpile and faces ammunition shortages. Ukraine faces manpower shortages, many of their experienced soldiers have been either killed or injured, and Ukrainians have been actively trying to avoid mobilization through bribery or fleeing. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now 43 years old. Russia has also faced severe war casualties, but Russia has a numerical advantage in the armed forces. It can call upon a larger pool of reservists and replace soldiers much faster than Ukraine. In a war of attrition shortages of manpower and equipment make it much more difficult to sustain fighting there have also been fewer breakthroughs for Ukraine; the frontline has remained static with little movement. Ukraine only liberated less than 0.25% of the territories occupied by Russia since June.
Many commentators have pointed out the similarity to World War I. Russia’s reconnaissance strike complex employs precision guided weapons with real time data, leading to significant risks and losses for closely assembled armed forces. Ukraine adapted to these by dispersing their forces to reduce its casualties, however, this resulted in its armed forces becoming too thinly stretched to regain any lost territory. Whilst fighting Russia has strengthened and maintained its defensive positions. It employed elastic defense, where they are multiple defensive layers covered by anti-tank weaponry, mines and explosives and then followed secondary fighters inflicting heavy casualties, it delays the attacker and eventually wears down the attacker. Ukraine commanders have admitted being unable to move past these defenses.
The Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz once stated that “War is the extension of politics using different methods”. It is grounded in real-world data, not in abstract. Military goals must align with political objectives. If circumstances change, political goals and military objectives must adapt accordingly. In a current war of attrition time is not on Ukraine’s side counteroffensives have stalled, future military aid is uncertain and manpower continues to fade. If Ukraine continues to exhaust itself, these will Russia in the future to initiate future attacks and make Ukraine lose even further ground. This is why many foreign policy experts have pushed for negotiated peace between and Russia and Ukraine. Negotiations should not be seen as a separate process from victory but part of the process.
